Expectancy and Kelly
What an average trade earns, and a ceiling on how much to risk.
Results
How it works
Expectancy is what you make on average per trade: win rate x average win - loss rate x average loss. A positive number means an edge across many trades, if your stats are real and the sample is large.
The Kelly formula estimates the growth-maximizing risk. Full Kelly is very aggressive, so many traders use half or less. Zero means no edge.